Agustín Crivelli, economist and professor at the University of Buenos Aires: “The outlook for 2019 is far from encouraging for the Argentine economy. Amid a huge crisis, resulting from a policy of over-indebtedness without any precedent, Argentina will default on its external debt in 2021 at the latest. Most probably, next year we’ll see investors begin to move in anticipation, shedding Argentine debt papers and in this way accelerating the default. In order to avoid it, the Argentine government would need to raise levels of renewal of short-term placements by more than 50 percent, an unlikely scenario given the elections, in which the chances of re-election fall every day at the same pace that the economic crisis deepens. In this context, what will most likely happen in 2019 is a marked dollarization of portfolios, with bond rates and treasury bill rates growing rapidly as the election approaches.
The government’s deal with the IMF means the economy has debt maturities of more than $30 billion annually beginning in 2021 with no additional sources of financing. We clearly have a road in front of us that leads, as in 2001 with the IMF, to another, newer default.”